Global attention to Afghanistan: how do you evaluate international attention to Afghanistan in the next 1-2 years?

Global attention to Afghanistan: how do you evaluate international attention to Afghanistan in the next 1-2 years?

     Since the Taliban takeover in August 2021, humanitarian conditions in Afghanistan have deteriorated with over 24.4 million people in need of humanitarian assistance – an increase from 18.4 million in 2021. An estimated 22.8 million people need emergency food assistance more than doubling the March-May 2021 projection.^[1] An updated Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis shows that in the first quarter of 2022, around 23 million people, or 55 percent of the population, are expected to be in crisis or emergency levels of food insecurity.[2] Moreover, Afghan refugees are becoming a critical problem to neighboring and European countries. An estimated 515,000 refugees have been added to the existing 2.8 million Afghan refugees and asylum seekers around the world this year.[3] Along with these crises, the country’s overseas assets were frozen, sending the fragile economy into freefall. In this paper, we are going to discuss if the current situation in Afghanistan will lead to increased global attention towards this country in the coming two years. If yes, what are those factors?

     The crisis in Afghanistan is becoming a serious global problem. The International Rescue Committee (IRC) Emergency Watchlist ranks Afghanistan as the country most at risk of the worsening humanitarian crisis in 2022.[4] According to the United Nations, Afghanistan might reach near-universal poverty by mid-2022, with 97 percent of Afghans destitute. This economic crisis, if not handled, would increase humanitarian demands ranging from food poverty and hunger to health concerns.[5] Over 90% of the country’s health facilities are projected to close, depriving millions of people of essential treatment, jeopardizing the COVID-19 response, and increasing the risk of disease outbreaks, malnutrition, famine, and other preventable deaths.

     Food insecurity is another factor that makes the Afghanistan situation a severe world issue. Nearly 9 million Afghans are in emergency situations, one step short of starvation. Food insecurity is expected to worsen in mid-2022, as the country faces food shortages, rapidly rising food costs, and extended drought. As indicated by IRC evaluations in five provinces in mid-2021, shortage of food and livelihoods were cited as the primary causes for people fleeing their homes. The facts above should be sufficient to convince any organization or government donor to address the crisis in the coming two years.[6]

     The second most important factor in attracting global attention to the Afghanistan crisis is the political interest of the donor governments. Though many people might question why countries would agree to assist Afghanistan, the reality is that this country’s issues impact other nations as well. As mentioned above, the humanitarian crisis may lead to large-scale migrations if not addressed. A developing refugee crisis would have the heaviest social and economic repercussions on neighboring countries —particularly Pakistan and Iran, which already host more than 2.2 million registered Afghan refugees and more than 3 million others of varying status. European countries would also be largely affected by any large-scale migration.[7]

     With the departure of foreign troops nearly complete, the Taliban and their foreign associates are fighting to turn the country, once again, into a haven for transnational terrorism. As urged by the UNSC permanent representative: “Swift action must be taken to change the current catastrophic trajectory of violence and humanitarian suffering in Afghanistan, otherwise, it will pave the ground for civil war and terrorism in the country which affects the region and the interests of the highest economies such as China, USA, and Russia.”[8] These reasons would persuade the world to take action for their own interests if not for the well of Afghanistan.

     The third factor is the presence of humanitarian NGOs and international organizations.  Seventy-Five percent of Afghanistan’s budget depends on foreign aid after the collapse of the government. However, Germany, the USA, Canada, and the World Bank have stopped all disbursements of their own resources and the donor-contributed Afghanistan Reconstruction Trust Fund money to Afghanistan — including both direct support to the Afghan budget and high-priority development projects such as basic public health and rural development. The Asian Development Bank also has suspended disbursements. These decisions all stem from their refusal to formally recognize the Taliban government. [9]To conclude, we believe that international attention toward Afghanistan will increase over the next two years due to the intensity of the crisis in this country, the presence of foreign interest, and the high-scale presence of humanitarian organizations. Even if the Taliban government doesn’t get recognized, these factors would alone save Afghanistan from going to the margins of attention.